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Educational and Psychological Measurement
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Comparison of Measures of Predictive Power

Roger Tarling

Home Office Research and Planning Unit, Queen Anne's Gate, London SWIH 9AT

Many measures of predictive power have been recommended. These include Mean Cost Rating (MCR), P(A), (from Signal Detection Theory), Kendall's rank correlation coefficient tau, and Goodman and Kruskal's gamma. It is shown that these four measures are related as all are merely different transformations of the statistic S. By reference to S, whose distribution is known, hypothesis testing is made possible. Of the four measures considered gamma is generally to be preferred. Remarks made here apply equally to measures of association for ordered contingency tables.

Educational and Psychological Measurement, Vol. 42, No. 2, 479-487 (1982)
DOI: 10.1177/001316448204200211
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