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Educational and Psychological Measurement
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Evaluating the Predictive Validity of Graduate Management Admission Test Scores

Stephen G. Sireci

University of Massachusetts Amherst

Eileen Talento-Miller

Graduate Management Admission Council, McLean, Virginia

Admissions data and first-year grade point average (GPA) data from 11 graduate management schools were analyzed to evaluate the predictive validity of Graduate Management Admission Test® (GMAT®) scores and the extent to which predictive validity held across sex and race/ethnicity. The results indicated GMAT verbal and quantitative scores had substantial predictive validity, accounting for about 16% of the variance in graduate GPA beyond that predicted by undergraduate GPA. When these scores and undergraduate GPA were used together, they accounted for approximately 25% of the variation in first-year graduate GPA. Correcting correlations for restriction of range improved the predictive power. No statistical differences were found across examinee groups defined by race/ethnicity and sex, which suggests a lack of bias in these scores. The predictive utility of GMAT analytical writing scores was relatively low, accounting for only about 1% of the variation in graduate GPA, after accounting for undergraduate GPA and GMAT verbal and quantitative scores.

Key Words: admissions testing • differential predictive validity • predictive validity • validity

Educational and Psychological Measurement, Vol. 66, No. 2, 305-317 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/0013164405282455
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Home page
 Educational and Psychological MeasurementHome page
E. Talento-Miller and L. M. Rudner
The Validity of Graduate Management Admission Test Scores: A Summary of Studies Conducted From 1997 to 2004
Educational and Psychological Measurement, February 1, 2008; 68(1): 129 - 138.
[Abstract] [PDF]